New Delhi. There is no possibility of recession in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region during the coming year. However, the sector will definitely be affected by high interest rates and slow global trade growth. Rating agency Moody’s Analytics said this on Thursday.
In its analysis titled ‘APAC Outlook: A Coming Downshift’ (APAC Outlook: A Coming Downshift), Moody’s has said that India is heading towards slower growth next year, which is in line with its long-term outlook. On the positive side, investment flows and technology and productivity gains in agriculture will propel growth.
It said that if inflation persists at a high level, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will have to keep the key policy rate repo above 6 per cent, which will slow down GDP growth. According to news agency PTI, Moody’s had predicted in August that India’s growth would slow down to 8 per cent in 2022, further slowing down to 5 per cent in 2023. In 2021 it was 8.5 percent.
The economy of the Asia-Pacific region slows down
In its analysis, Moody’s said that the economy of the Asia-Pacific region is slowing down and this trade-dependent region is bearing the brunt of the slowdown in global trade. Steve Cochrane, Chief Economist (APAC) at Moody’s Analytics, said, “Not only China is the weak link in the global economy, but the export value of other major economies of Asia, including India, fell on an annual basis in October.” However, India’s dependence on exports is somewhat less.
Economic growth to remain sluggish in Europe and North America
On the regional outlook, Moody’s said major economies in the APAC region, including India, are expanding after delaying the lifting of pandemic-related restrictions, with fears of a slowdown in Europe and North America slowing economic growth in 2023 compared to 2022. Is going to be sluggish in terms of.
No signs of recession in the APAC region in the coming year
“There is no sign of a recession in the APAC region in the year ahead, although the region will face headwinds from higher interest rates and slowing global trade growth,” he added.
FIRST PUBLISHED : November 24, 2022, 18:05 IST